With 14 matches still to play in the league stage, LSG and MI have already been eliminated from playoff contention, while DC is clinging on by a thread. GT has nearly secured its spot, and both RCB and SRH would need a disastrous finish from here to miss out. PBKS remains in a strong position as well. CSK and RR have better-than-even chances of finishing in the top four points-wise, even if tied. KKR holds a slim chance. With 16,384 possible outcome combinations still in play, nothing is certain yet for the eight teams still in the race.
Tuesday’s victory has all but guaranteed GT a top-four points finish, with a 99.6% probability. Their chances of finishing first or second (singly or jointly) stand at an impressive 84.5%. RCB has an 88.1% chance of being among the top four by points (including ties) and a 59% shot at the top two. Tuesday’s loss has dropped SRH’s top-four points probability to 76.8%, with only a 35.5% chance of securing a top-two spot.
PBKS’s top-four points probability sits at 64.5%, with a 28.8% chance of finishing among the top two. CSK has a 53.9% chance of making the top four (better than even) but only a 22% chance of cracking the top two. RR is slightly lower at 53.8% for the top four and 18.2% for the top two. KKR has a slim 12.8% chance of reaching the playoffs and a minuscule 3.6% chance of finishing among the top two. DC keeps its playoff hopes alive but barely, with a 3.2% probability—their best-case scenario is a third-place tie with two or three other teams.
How the probabilities are calculated: With 14 games left, there are 16,384 possible result combinations. For each team, we count how many of these combinations see them finish among the top four (singly or tied) and how many put them in the top two (singly or tied). For instance, GT finishes in the top four in 16,324 combinations, giving them a 99.6% chance.
